Wimbledon draws to a conclusion today with the men’s singles final with Novak Djokovic taking on Roger Federer. Tennis Signal’s analyist previews the clash of the titans.
Djokovic with slight advantage based on tournament data
After 126 matches featuring 128 players, we are down to one final match, between the two players seeded to be here at this stage – Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, in what is a final most neutrals would have been delighted with in advance of the tournament.
Across their six matches at Wimbledon so far this tournament, it’s Djokovic with the marginal data edge. He’s won slightly more games (66% to 63%) and also possesses a combined hold/break edge in excess of the numbers Federer can boast.
Market lines on Djokovic some slight value
Taking those numbers in isolation, however, isn’t recommended, and it must be assessed in combination with more medium-term grass data as well.
This 24 month data also is in favour of the Serb, whose advantage on return (he’s broken around 10% more than Federer during this time period on grass) is considerably greater than Federer, and leads me to think that the 1.57 market line on the world number one is actually reasonable value.
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